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The end of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement in 2024 will disrupt gas supplies to several European countries, particularly Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova.
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To replace Russian gas, the EU will need to increase LNG imports and utilize alternative pipelines, such as the Trans-Balkan pipeline and the Balkan Stream.
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Central and Eastern European countries are collaborating on the Vertical Gas Corridor initiative to enhance energy security and diversify gas supplies.
The European Union (EU) targets a ban on Russian fuel imports by 2027. However, nearly half of Russia's pipeline gas supplies to Europe and Moldova are still passing through Ukraine, totaling 13.7 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2023. As the EU discusses the possibility of involving Azerbaijan in a future transit deal, the current five-year gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire by the end of 2024, leading to concerns about the future flow of these gas volumes. Rystad Energy predicts that Russia's gas will need to be rerouted to Europe through alternative paths, requiring an additional 7.2 Bcm per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace the gas transiting Ukraine. Supply disruptions may occur sooner than initially expected, as indicated by the Austrian company OMV’s market warning in May.
