In Wisconsin and Michigan, the current and former president are running neck and neck. It seems likely that Democrats’ massive investment in field offices and get-out-the-vote efforts will be enough to help President Biden win these two states, which he moved back into the Democratic column in 2020, reversing Hillary Clinton’s losses in 2016.
In Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, Mr. Trump has the edge, leading Mr. Biden by about 5 percentage points in each state. While the president could turn this around, the size of the deficit he must overcome indicates that the odds he faces are daunting. If Mr. Trump holds on to his lead in red-leaning states and carries these four swing states, he’ll have 268 electoral votes, two short of a majority.
