All that has gone before—polls, historical trends, message, issues, candidate quality, traditional get-out-the-vote efforts, candidate debates, voter persuasion—means almost nothing and is extremely insignificant.
The thing—the only thing—that truly matters now is a “ballots out, ballots in” machine.
With that perfected, you could elect a random name in a phone book, or a dead man, or a vegetable. Or both a dead man and a vegetable, as Pennsylvania recently demonstrated.